U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2020-2025
By March 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 58.31 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects no change from the projection of the preceding month, but is down from the January 2025 projection of 61.47 percent. The U.S. recession probabilities are predicted a year in advance by using the difference between 10-year and 3-month treasury rates.